Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Position Analysis - Relief Pitching

The Yankees bullpen was unpredictable last year. With Mariano Rivera's injury towards the injury, Scott Proctor seemingly pitching in every game and Kyle Farnswort's balky back Torre always had an interesting time bridging the game from his starter to his closer. The Yankees brought in a pair of right-handers in their trades that will most likely break camp with the big club and return most of the key relievers from last year. Joe Torre is notorious for falling in love with a reliever and overusing him (Tanyon Sturtze, Ron Villone). The Yankees are tossing around the idea of carrying twelve pitchers in 2007, mainly due to Torre's use of his bullpen.

Mariano Rivera enters the last year of his contract wanting a new one before the season starts. Brian Cashman wants to wait until November to give him one. If I were the GM, I'd hand Rivera a 3-year, $39 million contract right now. Or a 2-year, $25 million extension. I think I'd cry if Mariano Rivera finished his career in any uniform other than the Yankee Pinstripes. The best closer in baseball history has been throwing his cutter for about a decade, and no one's been able to hit it yet. He's gone from a strikeout pitcher to one who induces weak grounders which helps keep his pitch counts down. He's got a very fluid delivery from which he can generate a deceptive amount of power.

Kyle Farnsworth will be the eighth inning guy when he's healthy, which is hopefully all season. His fastball is 97-98 and touches 100 with life. His slider can be an unhittable pitch (like the one he froze David Ortiz with last May) or, if he fails to locate the pitch, it's a batting practice pitch. When he overthrows, he gets in trouble. Prefers setting up over getting the 27th out.

Scott Proctor pitched 102.1 innings last year (5th among relievers) but posted a 1.65 ERA in September and October. He's a rare breed of reliever that uses four pitches with regularity. In addition to his 93-98 fastball, he uses a late-breaking slider, a curveball and a decent changeup. When he fails to finish his pitches, they stay up in the zone and become easy for hitters to handle. Held hitters 1-for-13 with the bases loaded.

Mike Myers (waste of roster space, in my opinion) is the lefty specialist. He pitched in 62 games in 2007, but only pitched 30.2 innings. He's basically only a one-out pitcher and throws a "fastball" that tops out at 78 and a soft slider. His submarine delivery does make him hard on lefties (David Ortiz: 2-for-9, BB)

Brian Bruney was picked up from the Diamondbacks last summer and posted a 0.87 ERA in 19 games with the Yankees. It's silly to expect that from him for a whole season, but if he can shake this spring back injury, he should be able to contribute to the bullpen as a middle-relief guy with an ERA around 3.50.

Chris Britton was the first reliever acquired by trade. From Baltimore in the Jaret Wright deal. He used his "big, country fastball" to post a three and a half ERA in 60 games with Baltimore. He compliments his fastball with a changeup and a slider, using the changeup as his strikeout pitch.

Luis Viscaino was the main player in the Randy Johnson trade. Viscaino is the epitome of a Joe Torre relief pitcher. He's pitched in at least 65 games in the last five seasons, topping 70 in four of them. He's posted ERAs of 3.75, 3.73 and 3.58 the past three years, coming in both leagues (with Milwaukee, the White Sox and Arizona) so league changes don't appear to bother him.

Well, that's seven relievers. Pair them with the five starters and that gives the Yankees twelve pitchers. Those are the favorites to make the team, and probably will barring any lingering injuries to any of them (Bruney). Minor leaguers TJ Beam, Sean Henn (L), Humberto Sanchez, Jeff Karstens, Jose Veras and Darrell Rasner are also in the mix, but are probably behind the first seven on the depth chart. If the bullpen stays healthy, they could theoretically be one of the strongest bullpens in the American League. But injuries could force the Yankees to dip into their farm system, and the young guys could struggle making the transition.

Friday, February 23, 2007

Position Analysis - Starting Pitching

The Yankees return only two of five starters from last season. Gone are Jaret Wright, Randy Johnson and Shawn Chacon from the 2006 Opening Day rotation. Aaron Small and the late Cory Lidle won't be making any starts for New York this year. The Yankees will count on Andy Pettitte, Kei Igawa and Carl Pavano to fill out the rotation behind Mike Mussina and Chien-Ming Wang. Potentially brilliant, but potentially disastrous as well.

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Chien-Ming Wang finished second in the Cy Young voting last season after spending time on the DL in his rookie season. He led the league with 19 wins and posted an impressive 3.63 ERA. He led the league in home run rate (1/18.17 innings). He made 33 starts (and one relief appearance) and led the team with 218 innings pitched, effectively saving the bullpen from being completely overused. He also saved himself by ranking second in fewest pitches per inning (14). Wang throws his trademark sinking two-seam fastball 80% of the time and mixes a changeup and an effective slider the other 20% of the time. Wang's sinker, coupled with the New York offense should be enough to see Wang win 18-20 games again in 2007.

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Mike Mussina is the other incumbent in the Yankee rotation, and is coming off an above average year that saw him go 15-7 and lead the Yankees starters in ERA. He stayed relatively healthy and came in just under 200IP. He was in the top 5 in both quality starts and fewest walks per nine. Mussina doesn't throw as hard as he once did, and now relies more on his ever expanding repertoire and guile. Uses precise location of his fastball to get ahead of hitters, then has the choice of multiple pitches to finish off hitters. Uses a slider, changeup and a dancing knuckle-curve and is always adding to or backing off all his pitches.

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Andy Pettitte returns to New York after a three year exodus to Houston. He's gone over 200IP each of the last two seasons, which hopefully indicates that his tender left elbow is strong enough to give him another good season or two. He's always had a great delivery and good command of all his pitches. He cuts his fastball less than he did in his first stint with the Yankees, but is still effective. His curveball is of the straight 12-to-6 variety and his changeup fades away from right-handers. One of the best mound presences in the game this side of Roger Clemens. Pitching in New York again, Pettitte still has the ability to be a 15-game winner.

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Kei Igawa cost the Yankees $26 million and then some. He'll always be compared to Daisuke Matsuzaka, but not here. Throws a fastball, curveball, a slider and a changeup, but none of them are dominant pitches. He relies more on his command than his stuff, but will benefit from the bigger parks in the Major Leagues. He slides into the four or five spot this year, but will probably end up in the bullpen next, if not this year.

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Carl(a) Pavano didn't throw a major league pitch last year and hasn't since June 2005. The word in Tampa is that Pavano is in better shape and is focused on having a good season. He has the stuff to pitch effectively, but hasn't shown he has the mentality to do so. He owns four pitches above average pitches. Has good command of both his fastball and sharp slider, and uses a splitter as his out pitch. Getting anything out of him would be considered a success for the Yankees.

If Pavano continues his run of injuries, or Igawa fails to pan out, then the Yankees have plenty of resources to fall back on, and for once, they reside in the Yankees farm system and not on another teams roster. Jeff Karstens and Darrell Rasner both pitched effectively late in the year for the Yankees and will be the first arms called on should the need arise. And then there's always the super-hyped phenom Philip Hughes. I personally can't wait to see Hughes pitch, but I'd prefer not to need him until 2008. Anyone drawing comparisons to Roger Clemens is an exciting pitcher.

The Yankees rotation has the potential to be great, but the question marks could also go the other way and the rotation could struggle mightily. I prefer the former happens.

Thursday, February 22, 2007

Position Analysis - Outfield

With Gary Sheffield sporting a new beard in Detroit, the New York outfield looks to be one of the most dependable and most productive units in baseball. Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon and Bobby Abreu will patrol the outfield from left to right in 2007. Melky Cabrera will serve as the main reserve outfielder, and will probably see about one start a week as Torre will look to keep his regulars fresh with an occasional DH appearance.

Hideki Matsui broke his right wrist on May 1 last season and didn't return until September 12, but he did hit .396 with 3 homers and 10 RBIs after doing so. Always a professional hitter with good bat speed, Matsui continues to improve with each new season. He's a line drive with deceptive power and is one of the Yankees' big clutch hitters. He's an average fielder with a weaker arm but a quick release. He takes good routes to balls but struggles with balls hit directly over him.

Johnny Damon made the easiest transition to New York than any player in recent memory. He hit .285 with a career high 24 homers and swiped 25 bases, all while playing through a broken bone in his foot. He's an annoying hitter, fouling off good pitches until he gets something he can handle. He's got a very slashing swing which gets the backspin that produces carry. He's an exceptional baserunner and should run more with a healthy foot. He's an average fielder who takes good routes and covers more ground than most centerfielders, but has one of the weaker arms in the league. With a full season of Matsui, Abreu and Cano (and hopefully a return to form by Alex Rodriguez) Damon will focus more on getting on base. That should hopefully knock his power numbers down a touch, but a rise in his runs, on base percentage and average.

I lied. Bobby Abreu made one of the best transitions to New York in recent memory. The Yankees acquired the right-fielder on July 30 and all Abreu did was hit .330-7-42 in 58 games as a Yankee. He also stole 10 bases and drew 33 walks along with playing a very solid right field. Abreu was so impressive that he forced out feared slugger Gary Sheffield. He has a very smooth and efficient swing and hits the ball well to any field. Abreu can be overly selective which leads to a high total of strikeouts and walks. His power numbers have declined rapidly, but still has some pop, and won't be the focal point of the offense in New York. He's an above average right fielder with an above average range and arm. He appears tentative approaching the wall.

Melky Cabrera struggled in 19 at bats in 2005, then threw a coming out part of sorts in 2006. Given an extended look due to the injuries to Sheffield and Matsui, Cabrera led the American League in outfield assists and contributed with the bat. His power is still developing (being only 22) but he is a good gap-to-gap line drive hitter. He's a switch hitter that can drive the ball from both sides and has a good grasp of the strike zone. He led all rookies in OBP (.360), runs (75) and stolen bases (12) last year, but probably won't approach those numbers in 2007 as the Yankees fourth outfielder. He can play all three outfield positions, but is best in left. Plus arm, helps compensate for poor carom judgment.

Miguel Cairo is an emergency corner outfield option.

Monday, February 19, 2007

Position Analysis - Corner Infield

The best player in baseball lives 10 feet east of the third base bag. But no one wants to admit it. Even in a down year, Alex Rodriguez hit 36 home runs and drove in 121 runs. But a second consecutive abysmal postseason showing has Yankee fans and critics alike hounding him to be perfect.

Rodriguez will be the subject of many talk shows this year because of the clause in his contract which allows him to opt out of the last three years of his contract if he chooses. Rodriguez says he wants to stay in New York and the Yankees say they want him. There's no third baseman I'd rather have than Rodriguez and hope that he'll play out the contract and maybe re-sign after it's done. But for this year, he'll be in Pinstripes. It's my opinion that he'll bounce back strong and have another MVP-caliber season, perhaps even his best season ever. He has a long swing and quick hands. He expands the zone with runners on base and especially when they're in scoring position. He is an exceptional baserunner with great instincts and has 40 stolen base potential. He struggled on defense last year, but has good hands and charges ball well. His footwork needs serious attention, but he won't be a 20-error player again.

Doug Mientikiewicz was the Yankees second biggest free agent addition behind Andy Pettitte. Mientkiewicz doesn't offer much on offense, but he will improve the infield defense tremendously. He is one of the best in the business in the field and will provide a small margin of error for the Yankee infielders. He's a very smooth fielder with soft hands and excellent footwork. He has a fluid swing and thrives on pitches middle-up. More of a line drive hitter, he gets into slumps when he tries to pull the ball for power.

Either Josh Phelps or Andy Phillips will make the team as the right side of the first base platoon. (Although I believe the Yankees should let Mientkiewicz play first full time and bring Bernie back as a reserve outfielder/DH for one more season. Mientkiewicz's splits (.286/.274) aren't extreme enough to warrant the need to platoon him. But, the Yankees believe otherwise and I haven't won 26 world championships. Phillips impressed briefly last season before falling off after losing at bats. He killed lefties in the minor leagues, but hit just .195 against them last year (.186 career), furthering my point about trashing the platoon idea.

Phelps had a nice rookie campaign in 2003, but drastically fell off after that. He's been working his way back through the minor league systems of Toronto, Cleveland and Tampa Bay before being taken by the Yankees in the Rule V draft. If he doesn't stay on the roster all year, he has to offered back to Baltimore for $25,000. He's a career .300 RISP hitter with power potential. But it's been a few years since he had a good run in the majors. His defense is a little questionable, which again, confuses me on the whole platoon idea.

Moving Giambi to DH opened up options for the Yankees and I think they've chosen the wrong one. Unless Josh Phelps has an outstanding spring, Mientkiewicz should become the everyday starter at first. He's a better hitter and a much better defender than any of the others.

Sunday, February 18, 2007

Position Analysis - Middle Infield

Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano pair up to form one of the most impressive middle infields in all of baseball. Second and third respectively in the AL batting race last year, both men will look to pick up where they left off last year.

There isn't many better than Derek Jeter when it comes to clutch batting situations. He has enough power to hit 20-25 home runs a season, but uses all fields to hit for a high average as a prototypical two hitter. He excels at sacrificing and the hit and run. Jeter is coming off his third gold glove award and continues to play excellent defense. His range comes from mainly good positioning and he avoids bad hops. He charges balls well and has a strong arm.

Robinson Cano has developed into the best second baseman in the league in only two seasons. He has a natural inside out swing and very quick hands. He uses the entire field and will eventually see some of his numerous doubles turn into home runs. He smokes fastballs and is an exceptional mistake hitter. Cano will get plenty of RBI opportunities behind the many OBP machines ahead of him in the lineup. Doesn't steal many bases, but is a developing and quick baserunner who makes an occasional costly mistake. His defense improved immensely last season, perhaps due to his work with infield coach Larry Bowa. Robinson moves well to both sides, has soft hands and a strong arm.

Miguel Cairo will be the first, and really the only option off the bench. He is a natural second baseman who can play all four infield positions and handle the occasional outfield assignment. Cairo offers little with the bat, but his flexibility in the field makes him valuable to the Yankees. If Andy Phillips makes the team out of spring training, he could also see the occasional inning at second or third.

A definite strength for the Yankees, they'll be expecting (and getting) a lot of production from the middle of their infield, barring injury. Jeter should have another MVP-caliber season batting between Damon and Abreu and Cano should continue to improve on his already impressive numbers.

Friday, February 16, 2007

Position Analysis - First Base/DH

The Jason Giambi experiment is over. The Giambino will be the Yankees full-time designated hitter headed into the 2007 campaign. If Lou Gehrig was the Iron Horse, then Giambi qualifies as the Iron Glove. As inadequate as he is in the field, Giambi can still swing the bat. Wrist injuries have slowed his bat speed some but he's still a power hitter with power from center to right. He's a patient hitter who's become more and more of a streak hitter.

The Yankees signed defensive specialist Doug Mientkiewicz to take over the majority of the first base duties. He's one of the best in the business at first and will ultimately help the rest of the infield defense picking errant throws from across the diamond. He has a very fluid swing and is more of a line drive hitter so he won't put up much in terms of power numbers, although Yankee Stadium will help him in that aspect a little. He also provides a friend for Alex Rodriguez, reuniting with his high school teammate. He's a better option at the plate against lefties than Andy Phillips, although Phillips will probably still be the right side of a platoon.

Andy Phillips has outgrown the 'promising prospect' label. He's 30 years old and has yet to establish himself as a solid everyday player. He's in between Giambi and Mientkiewicz defensively although he tends to rust when playing very sporadically. He specialized in hitting left-handed pitching in the minors, but has yet to translate that skill to the major leagues. He's a good fastball hitter, but struggles against off-speed pitches. In my opinion, trading Phillips would make the most sense for the Yankees. A deal with Atlanta could make the most sense, packaging Phillips with Ron Villone for Jarrod Saltalamacchia and a pitching prospect.

Josh Phelps was picked up in the Rule V draft. He showed promise as a young player in Toronto and is looking to battle for playing time with Phillips. Another players with some pop and the ability to handle fastballs. If he makes the team, he could serve as the team's emergency catcher.

The Yankees seem to be favoring defense over offense at first base this year, finally having enough of Jason Giambi's slow footwork and shoddy defense. Joe Torre seems to be set on opening the season with the winner of the Josh Phelps/Andy Phillips battler and Doug Mientkiewicz in a lefty/righty platoon. Giambi will be counted on for 30 home runs and, 100 RBIs and his usual .400+ on base percentage while whoever starts at first will be considered successful if they play solid defense and occasionally contribute with the bat.

Wednesday, February 14, 2007

Position Analysis - Catcher

The Yankees have had Jorge Posada holding down the duties behind the plate for about a decade now. He will be the starter and receive the bulk of playing time as the Yankees lack a decent back-up catcher. Todd Pratt and Wil Nieves will compete for the backup job during spring training. Raul Chavez suffered a broken hand in winter ball and won't really be a factor anymore. That's for the better as he was the weakest option of the three.

Posada caught over 137 games last year for the seventh consecutive season. His average, home run and RBI totals were his highest since his MVP-caliber season in 2003. He also posted career highs in riples (2) and stolen bases (3). In addition to another strong offensive season, Posada had the best defensive campaign of his career with the help of Tony Pena. He was among the league leaders in caught stealing, throwing out 38-of-102 runners (37%) and had bettered a .990 fielding percentage for the fourth straight year. He enters the final year of his contract (a $12 million option triggered by games caught in the past five years) and with no major league ready replacement in the system, the Yankees will probably look to resign him to a two-year deal at the conclusion of the season, although for a lower price tag. He's a very patient hitter who seems to have a knack for working quality at-bats in key situations. He's a better hitter left-handed with pull power, which works in his favor with Yankee Stadium's short right field porch. For a veteran catcher, he still isn't too adept at working with pitchers.

Neither Wil Nieves or Todd Pratt are particularly attractive options. Nieves has played in 37 major league games, accumulating 82 at-bats for a .159 average with no home runs and three RBIs. He is younger and the fact that he has options left makes him more likely to start the season in SWB. Todd Pratt is a well-traveled veteren backup catcher. He works well with pitchers and offers more of a bat than Nieves. Pratt is a career .251 hitter and most recently played for Atlanta. The Yankees won't use their backup catcher much, or use them for pinch-hitting so this position battle won't be all that important.

Tuesday, February 13, 2007

New Yankee Blog

This is the new location of the old Yankee Blog from

www.nyy_news.livejournal.com

I'll kick this one off with a recap of the offseason.

KEY TRANSACTIONS

-Traded OF Gary Sheffield to Detroit for RP Humberto Sanchez, RP Kevin Whelan and RP Anthony Claggert.
All three arms are minor league relief pitchers from Detroit. Humberto Sanchez is a blue-chip arm. He throws a
very heavy fastball along with an above-average curveball and a plus changeup. He's slated to begin the year in AAA SW/B working with Nardi Contreras to improve his secondary pitchers. He's had some injury problems and weight issues, but the Yankees AAA pitching depth will let him take it slow. Kevin Whelan is a converted catcher who throws 95 and uses a splitter as his strikeout pitch. He struggles somewhat with his control but still strikes out almost 3 batters per walk. He'll most likely begin in AA Trenton as the closer, being carefully groomed as a future replacement of Rivera or a setup man.

-Traded Jaret Wright to Baltimore for RP Chris Britton
Jaret Wright spent two mostly disappointing seasons in New York. The Yankees sent him and half his salary to Maryland for a pretty tough young arm. Chris Britton throws 92-94 with a deceptive motion. He's a big boy at 6'3 and around 280. Lefties hit .301 off Britton last year in his Major League time but didn't hit him for much power. He gets his massive amount of K's with his curveball. If I were the Yankees, I'd take Britton in the bullpen over someone like Brian Bruney.

-Traded SP Randy Johnson to Arizona for RP Luis Viscaino, RP Ross Ohlendorf, RP Steven Jackson and SS Alberto Gonzalez
Nothing too special about this deal. Randy Johnson won 34 games in two year with the Yankees, but mainly because of the juggernaut of an offense the Yankees featured. New York and Johnson didn't really mesh and the trade works well for each side. Luis Viscaino is a solid, durable and dependable relief arm dubbed "Daily" for his frequent use. Ross Ohlendorf is a Princeton graduate with a power arm. He has control issues, and doesn't strike out a huge amount of batters. Gonzalez and Jackson are lower-level prospects not expected to be too much in the majors.

-Signed SP Andy Pettitte
Andy Pettitte coming back was my favorite move of the offseason. He was one of my favorite dynasty Yankees along with the Warrior and Jeter. He's thrown over 200 innings each of the past two seasons so his left elbow is evidently holding up pretty well. He'll take the number two spot in the rotation behind Chien-Ming Wang and in front of Mike Mussina.

-Signed 1B Doug Mientkiewicz
A good-field, no-hit first baseman expected to fill the left side of a first base platoon. No matter how much Jason Giambi wants to play first, the fact remains that he's a liability there. Mientkiewicz is one of the premier defensive first basemen in the league and will help the infield defense tremendously. He doesn't hit much, but he won't be expected to. Another bonus to the signing is Doug is close personal friends with Alex Rodriguez which will hopefully make Rodriguez more comfortable in the clubhouse and city.

-Signed SP Kei Igawa
The Yankees consolation prize after losing out on Daisuke Matsuzaka. Kei Igawa projects to be a back-end rotation guy, so he shouldn't have as much pressure to deal with, although he will always be compared to Matsuzaka. Igawa has the advantage of being left-handed, as southpaws have traditionally fared well in Yankee Stadium. Igawa also has Hideki Matsui as an established Japanese teammate to relate to and help him adjust. The Yankees are looking for Igawa to stay healthy all year and keep their high-powered offense in games. He's slated to be the number 4 starter, although I would guess he'd end up in the bullpen by as early as next year. He's tough on lefties and Mike Myers' deal is up after this year. Igawa could move to the bullpen and serve as a lefty specialist/long reliever/spot starter if (and more likely when) the Yankees go after a big name starter (Johan Santana) or the young arms (Hughes, Clippard, Sanchez) hit the big leagues


So that was the Yankees offseason in a nutshell. As Spring Training gets underway, I'll take a look at the team and players and will end the spring with my predictions for the year. Hopefully we'll see a twenty-seven go up in Yankee Stadium.