Friday, February 23, 2007

Position Analysis - Starting Pitching

The Yankees return only two of five starters from last season. Gone are Jaret Wright, Randy Johnson and Shawn Chacon from the 2006 Opening Day rotation. Aaron Small and the late Cory Lidle won't be making any starts for New York this year. The Yankees will count on Andy Pettitte, Kei Igawa and Carl Pavano to fill out the rotation behind Mike Mussina and Chien-Ming Wang. Potentially brilliant, but potentially disastrous as well.

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Chien-Ming Wang finished second in the Cy Young voting last season after spending time on the DL in his rookie season. He led the league with 19 wins and posted an impressive 3.63 ERA. He led the league in home run rate (1/18.17 innings). He made 33 starts (and one relief appearance) and led the team with 218 innings pitched, effectively saving the bullpen from being completely overused. He also saved himself by ranking second in fewest pitches per inning (14). Wang throws his trademark sinking two-seam fastball 80% of the time and mixes a changeup and an effective slider the other 20% of the time. Wang's sinker, coupled with the New York offense should be enough to see Wang win 18-20 games again in 2007.

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Mike Mussina is the other incumbent in the Yankee rotation, and is coming off an above average year that saw him go 15-7 and lead the Yankees starters in ERA. He stayed relatively healthy and came in just under 200IP. He was in the top 5 in both quality starts and fewest walks per nine. Mussina doesn't throw as hard as he once did, and now relies more on his ever expanding repertoire and guile. Uses precise location of his fastball to get ahead of hitters, then has the choice of multiple pitches to finish off hitters. Uses a slider, changeup and a dancing knuckle-curve and is always adding to or backing off all his pitches.

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Andy Pettitte returns to New York after a three year exodus to Houston. He's gone over 200IP each of the last two seasons, which hopefully indicates that his tender left elbow is strong enough to give him another good season or two. He's always had a great delivery and good command of all his pitches. He cuts his fastball less than he did in his first stint with the Yankees, but is still effective. His curveball is of the straight 12-to-6 variety and his changeup fades away from right-handers. One of the best mound presences in the game this side of Roger Clemens. Pitching in New York again, Pettitte still has the ability to be a 15-game winner.

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Kei Igawa cost the Yankees $26 million and then some. He'll always be compared to Daisuke Matsuzaka, but not here. Throws a fastball, curveball, a slider and a changeup, but none of them are dominant pitches. He relies more on his command than his stuff, but will benefit from the bigger parks in the Major Leagues. He slides into the four or five spot this year, but will probably end up in the bullpen next, if not this year.

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Carl(a) Pavano didn't throw a major league pitch last year and hasn't since June 2005. The word in Tampa is that Pavano is in better shape and is focused on having a good season. He has the stuff to pitch effectively, but hasn't shown he has the mentality to do so. He owns four pitches above average pitches. Has good command of both his fastball and sharp slider, and uses a splitter as his out pitch. Getting anything out of him would be considered a success for the Yankees.

If Pavano continues his run of injuries, or Igawa fails to pan out, then the Yankees have plenty of resources to fall back on, and for once, they reside in the Yankees farm system and not on another teams roster. Jeff Karstens and Darrell Rasner both pitched effectively late in the year for the Yankees and will be the first arms called on should the need arise. And then there's always the super-hyped phenom Philip Hughes. I personally can't wait to see Hughes pitch, but I'd prefer not to need him until 2008. Anyone drawing comparisons to Roger Clemens is an exciting pitcher.

The Yankees rotation has the potential to be great, but the question marks could also go the other way and the rotation could struggle mightily. I prefer the former happens.

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