Monday, April 23, 2007

April Sweeps, Bring May Streaks

Boston 7, Yankees 6
Boston 7, Yankees 5
Boston 7, Yankees 6

From that, one could easily assume that the Yankees and Red Sox were evenly matched, with Boston having a slight edge. But the series, while played well by Boston, is misleading.

Curt Schilling (7IP, 5R)
Josh Beckett (6.2IP, 5R)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (7IP, 6R)

Boston's top three starters got lit up to the tune of a 6.97 ERA. The Yankees starters, however, were not any better at 8.56. But let's look at those.

Andy Pettitte (6.1IP, 2R) - best start of the six starters, by far.
Jeff Karstens (4.1IP, 7R)
Chase Wright (3IP, 4R)

Jeff Karstens was making his first start of the season, having been activated earlier in the day from the disabled list. It was his seventh career start. Chase Wright has even less experience, as he was making his second career start, and only his second start above AA ball.

It's never fun to lose games, especially to Boston, but after the weekend, I feel surprisingly good. Why? Because Boston barely won every game when we threw our farm team up on the mound. Yes, the Yankees have the deepest minor league pitching, but it's a few years away from seriously contibuting. I bet Jason Varitek could go down to AA ball and tee off there. Well, maybe not Varitek, but certainly Ramirez, Drew and Lowell could.

The Yankees lost because they had no pitching - that certainly won't last. Three starters were on the disabled list and the bullpen (which had been the best in the American League in both ERA, WHIP and BAA) was overused due to the fact that the starters were on the DL. As the starting pitching returns, starting with Chien-Ming Wang on Tuesday, the bullpen will return to throwing normal innings. I'm convinced that had the Yankees had healthy starters and a rested bullpen, the sweep would have been the other way around, and it wouldn't have even been close. If the starters had been healthy all season, we'd have seen more games like Pettitte's, and a rested bullpen to protect the leads instead of giving them up.

The Yankees offense also wasn't at full health and yet they still managed 6 runs a game against Boston's top 3 starters (the supposed best top 3 in the game). Hideki Matsui did not play due to a hamstring injury (he's due back next week). Johnny Damon missed a game and Jorge Posada missed two games. Posada's absence also hurt the younger pitchers more. The starting outfield for the second game was Kevin Thompson, Melky Cabrera and Bobby Abreu.

I'm not trying to take anything away fron the Red Sox, because they won a game against the Yankees in Boston (which hadn't happened in 8 previous attempts) but they beat minor league, and beleaguered pitching.

I'll take this time to remind everyone that on this date last year, Boston sat four games ahead of the Yankees and managed to finish third in the division, 11 games back. Boston also won 4 of the first 5 games between the two teams in 2006, and by much larger margins than they did this weekend.

So, Boston Red Sox fan, celebrate now as you do every April. We'll see what comes in August and September, when both teams are at full strength. Something parallel to last August if I'm not mistaken. Boston has an uncanny knack for impressing themselves.


DAISUKE MATSUZAKA

Want to talk about overhyped? The Red Sox shell out over $51 million just to talk to the guy, then need just about every minute of the negotiating period to screw the poor man. Then spring training comes and Dice-K starts against Boston College and does well. Who woulda thunk? [Note sarcasm] Then the regular season starts, he's good, and he's labeled a god. Let's look at the offenses he faced.

Kansas City - 10th in runs, 10th in average (1ER)
Seattle - 14th in runs, 8th in average (3ER)
Toronto - 8th in runs, 4th in average (2ER)
New York - 1st in runs, 1st in average (6ER)

Even I understand that Mizzou isn't a National Championship contender because they beat Murray State in September. Pitching well against teams with offenses in the lower half of the league isn't all that impressive. Why? Because you won't see those teams in October. You'll see the team you got shelled by.

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Matsuzaka served up 6 runs to the Yankees, and it probably should have been more. Wil Nieves [a backup catcher] hit two absolute rockets right at people. One with a runner on third, on with the bases loaded. If both of those find holes, that's three more runs with innings still going.

Another suggestion, Mr. Matsuzaka - you keep showing up umpires, you'll be in for a long summer. Umps have no time for you putting your hands on your hips and looking up to the sky and taking two steps towards the dugout after a pitch six inches off the plate. Maybe in Japan, but not here. Although even with his antics, the strike zone surprisingly, ranged from Alex Rodriguez's shoelaces to Bobby Abreu's chin, at least, when the Yankees batted. For Boston it seemed to be from the bottom of Julio Lugo's belt, to the top of Julio Lugo's belt.

Every series has it's breaks. Everything broke Boston's way this time, as is the norm in April. Nobody ever won a World Series in April.

~Andy Pettitte - Jeff Karstens - Chase Wright - Darrell Rasner - Kei Igawa

~Chein-Ming Wang - Roger Clemens - Andy Pettitte - Mike Mussina - Carl Pavano/Kei Igawa

Is one rotation better than the other? One run a game better? If the answer is yes, then Boston's in trouble. If the answer's no, then you probably have some mental handicap and should schedule a game against the Red Sox. They'd beat you and be impressed with themselves.

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